In last three months there were no fundamental changes in my portfolio. The main things were:
- I sold a solid chunk of GOOG, mostly in order to diversify
- Valeant stock price recovered and it now occupies a bigger % of the portfolio, even though I had sold ~20% of the peak holdings already to take profits
- I have bought some REITs (SRC, NNN, O and more of VER) when they declined
- I sold most of EPOL to take profits and all of Pershing Square because they sold Valeant
- I bought a bit more of Markel, Fairfax, Ford and GM
Seeing stock price of Valeant rising strongly feels nice now, especially that I was able to reduce my avg. cost to $12.8 on the way down. I still expect it to be north of $50 within 2-3 years, as they pay down debt and market recognizes that bankruptcy is more and more unlikely. It is still a risky bet, which is why I already took some profits and will continue to do so if the stock continues to rise.
I continue to think about Berkshire, Markel, Fairfax, Alleghany and REITs as 'cash substitution' with the obvious caveat that they can still go down significantly when the entire market will stop the raise. But a permanent loss of capital in them is very unlikely.
With Ford and GM being still very cheap cash flow machines, with shareholder-friendly policies, I am happy to park some money in there, as I see all possible bad news (and more) already priced in.
