I am following Tesla for quite some time and I become more and more convinced that what the progress their imply with self-driving capabilities (and most of other goals) is significantly overstated.
Their switch to "HW2.0", which I think is not enough for fully self-driving car, was perhaps indeed triggered by Mobileye dropping Tesla as a customer when they did not really have and usable self-driving technology except for what Mobileye provided. The delayed and only partial 'launch' is rather unimpressive. It is nice progress if they started in October, but hardly shows a 'lead' in self-driving capabilities - perhaps a result of heroic programming and working 7 days a week. At the same time, WayMo is rolling out tests for their Chrysler vehicle in January and plans production in October.
I still admire what Tesla achieved, but the continuous (mis)communication from Musk is distasteful.
Since beginning of the year, I opened a small short position in Tesla through Jan'18 & Jan'19 puts. I am not sure Tesla stock price will indeed drop significantly by then, but I see progress from others (in both EVs and self-driving) and Tesla significantly under-delivering (with Model 3, total car deliveries and lack of meaningful solar/storage sales) as likely catalysts.
Their switch to "HW2.0", which I think is not enough for fully self-driving car, was perhaps indeed triggered by Mobileye dropping Tesla as a customer when they did not really have and usable self-driving technology except for what Mobileye provided. The delayed and only partial 'launch' is rather unimpressive. It is nice progress if they started in October, but hardly shows a 'lead' in self-driving capabilities - perhaps a result of heroic programming and working 7 days a week. At the same time, WayMo is rolling out tests for their Chrysler vehicle in January and plans production in October.
I still admire what Tesla achieved, but the continuous (mis)communication from Musk is distasteful.
Since beginning of the year, I opened a small short position in Tesla through Jan'18 & Jan'19 puts. I am not sure Tesla stock price will indeed drop significantly by then, but I see progress from others (in both EVs and self-driving) and Tesla significantly under-delivering (with Model 3, total car deliveries and lack of meaningful solar/storage sales) as likely catalysts.
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