Tesla catalysts

The Tesla saga is an interesting one, and I continue to track it closely.

Here is a nice write-up from Whitney Tilson. I think it nicely sums up short thesis (mostly written down by his friends, actually) as well as why it is risky to short Tesla. I do not like the the potential for unlimited losses from straight shorting, therefore I decided to short Tesla using Jan'18 and Jan'19 puts.

Besides solid short thesis I think it is equally important to identify catalysts. While I think that Model 3, driver assist functions in 2nd gen hardware, let alone autonomous capabilities will be significantly delayed, I don't see these events by themselves necessarily impacting Tesla stock price. I see following catalysts though:

1. While the date of the Tesla's annual report was still not given (perhaps a sign on its own), it should be out in February. With consolidation of Solar City, it will not look well, neither from income, nor balance sheet perspective.
2. The ZEV credits will be increasingly hard to earn, with Chevy Bolt and subsequent 'real' electric cars coming to market.
3. While Tesla fans await Model 3, the demand for Model S/X will likely dry, and we may see declining Y/Y revenue numbers. Losses will likely increase too. It will be tough for Tesla to say that Model 3 is on track and successfully upsell to Model S/X at the same time.
4. The 2016 DMV CA disengagement report suggests that Waymo is way ahead in self driving capabilities, with GM Cruise being a second one. Based on Waymo's October 'production' plans and GM's partnership with Lyft, I see one or both of them deploying a fleet of self driving cars to a ride-hailing program, similar to Uber, this year. While they will likely still have human safety drivers, I expect it will have clear path to driverless operation and thus it will likely be priced competitively to Uber/taxis. When this happens, the illusion of Tesla's leadership in self-driving capabilities should be clear.