I just watched a great video about self-driving cars where Cruise gets a bit more technical about autonomous cars than in other videos I saw before (which were created for broader consumption). Even though it's not the latest status update, I think it shows a solid overview of the domain, even if it's perhaps common knowledge for people in the industry.
It's really a super interesting race and I am more and more convinced that Cruise/GM will be a leader in deploying autonomous taxis at scale, thanks to tight partnership between apparently great software team and experienced and disciplined automaker.
I'm placing my investing bets accordingly and thinking of having even more outsized position in GM given the attractive price. I also have sizable position in out of money calls for GM, which are not captured on the breakdown below.
The beauty is that even if GM does not succeed in autonomous cars, it's still cheap and relatively safe investment, despite all the caveats of being in cyclical industry, peak auto, etc.
I'm quite content that I have added to my FB and AAPL positions in the recent decline, but I'm decreasing slightly the AAPL stake. It's a great investment with outstanding capital allocation, but IMHO close to be fully priced. The biggest opportunity they have is IMHO in wearables/AR, but whether they'll be able to capture it remains to be seen.
KHC and VER do not have great growth prospects, but I treat them as bond-equivalents that will stabilize portfolio. Of course this plan did not go very well for VER for now, but with business being steady, it's hard to see much more room for decline of their price.
Finally, I'm content about the VRX progress and they probably chose a good moment to change company name to embrace the Bausch part of their business. I still see a lot of value beyond current share price, so I'm mostly holding my shares in it, with only very light profit-taking.
It's really a super interesting race and I am more and more convinced that Cruise/GM will be a leader in deploying autonomous taxis at scale, thanks to tight partnership between apparently great software team and experienced and disciplined automaker.
I'm placing my investing bets accordingly and thinking of having even more outsized position in GM given the attractive price. I also have sizable position in out of money calls for GM, which are not captured on the breakdown below.
The beauty is that even if GM does not succeed in autonomous cars, it's still cheap and relatively safe investment, despite all the caveats of being in cyclical industry, peak auto, etc.
I'm quite content that I have added to my FB and AAPL positions in the recent decline, but I'm decreasing slightly the AAPL stake. It's a great investment with outstanding capital allocation, but IMHO close to be fully priced. The biggest opportunity they have is IMHO in wearables/AR, but whether they'll be able to capture it remains to be seen.
KHC and VER do not have great growth prospects, but I treat them as bond-equivalents that will stabilize portfolio. Of course this plan did not go very well for VER for now, but with business being steady, it's hard to see much more room for decline of their price.
Finally, I'm content about the VRX progress and they probably chose a good moment to change company name to embrace the Bausch part of their business. I still see a lot of value beyond current share price, so I'm mostly holding my shares in it, with only very light profit-taking.
1 comment:
Dear Kuba,
Do you think GM has a structural advantage compared to Google in the self driving space? I am highly doubtful that this is so. If given an option between Google and GM (for working), why would I pick GM? Do they pay more? Have better talent?
I highly doubt that GM will be able to overtake Google in the long term in this space, unless the culture at Google/GM change.
GM might still be cheap, without the self driving part.
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