Wednesday, April 3, 2019

GM & TSLA thoughts

I continue to be puzzled about GM's stock performance - it's finding new and new lows and market seems to only look for bad things, while ignoring the good.

It is true that light vehicle sales are plateauing and China might start to be a challenge. There might be no grow in core GM business, but at current valuation it is still a steal and Cruise alone, based on $10B+ valuation, reduces GM P/E to a value close to 5. They continue to be prudent capital allocators and the execution is top-notch. The plant closings is in my opinion forward-looking action.

I'm trying to moderately increase the position on dips and will be slower to sell in an upswing.



I've been bearish with regards to Tesla for a few years now, but my initial approach with buying long-dated, deep out of money puts was costly. After switching to straight shorting and selling the highs and buying back the lows I'm firm in the black for this position, but I'm heavily biased against buying options. I've sold a few calls for TSLA, and might do so again, but lately I was staying away from buying puts, given that for a few years I was thinking that bankruptcy is imminent, but nothing happened.

These days, I'm inclined to predict that severe drop in TSLA stock prices will finally happen in a matter of a few months - at least that the valuation will drop like a rock, due to busted growth story, if not streight insolvency.

I do hope that the delivery numbers will surprise to the upside and I'll be able to substantially increase my short position. On Thursday, chances are that some radical step like large fine or Musk not being CEO will kick off the valuation ball downhill.

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