While the Tesla drama is as entertaining as ever, there are cracks in Tesla's story - at least if judged by the share price.
I had listened/watched a good chunk of 'autonomy day' presentation and earnings call. While the 'robotaxis' is a pipe dream, there are certainly good things about Tesla - increased financial discipline (from a low start), improved efficiency in S/X causing large range improvement and seemingly some cost optimizations. Even overhyped autonomy and custom chip could have some real value. I'd especially find it promising if it would be deployed as a shadow mode, where it helps correct human errors (especially inattention) rather than overpromising and inevitably causing people to reduce their concentration and ability to correct machine's behavior.
But in my judgement, all this optionality embedded in Tesla is still overshadowed by liabilities - while the value of the company is positive (thanks to aforementioned optionality) the value of equity, in my view, is zero.
So all of this changed little in my view on Tesla's fundamental value.
But based on my predefined orders and price levels my short position just closed.
I can't rule out a takeover or successful equity raise. It also seems to me that with some more financial discipline and China factory kicking in, the story might be going on even for years to come, with no imminent bankruptcy in sight.
So I can't tell if the price will steadily move towards zero (where it belongs) or will bounce back. In the first case, I will not earn money on Tesla anymore, but I can live with this. Should it bounce higher, I'd be happy to reestablish my short position - but more aggressively this time.
I had listened/watched a good chunk of 'autonomy day' presentation and earnings call. While the 'robotaxis' is a pipe dream, there are certainly good things about Tesla - increased financial discipline (from a low start), improved efficiency in S/X causing large range improvement and seemingly some cost optimizations. Even overhyped autonomy and custom chip could have some real value. I'd especially find it promising if it would be deployed as a shadow mode, where it helps correct human errors (especially inattention) rather than overpromising and inevitably causing people to reduce their concentration and ability to correct machine's behavior.
But in my judgement, all this optionality embedded in Tesla is still overshadowed by liabilities - while the value of the company is positive (thanks to aforementioned optionality) the value of equity, in my view, is zero.
So all of this changed little in my view on Tesla's fundamental value.
But based on my predefined orders and price levels my short position just closed.
I can't rule out a takeover or successful equity raise. It also seems to me that with some more financial discipline and China factory kicking in, the story might be going on even for years to come, with no imminent bankruptcy in sight.
So I can't tell if the price will steadily move towards zero (where it belongs) or will bounce back. In the first case, I will not earn money on Tesla anymore, but I can live with this. Should it bounce higher, I'd be happy to reestablish my short position - but more aggressively this time.
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