I've looked through several ideas on VIC between Dec 24th and end of year, but decided against these:
- NVFY - there is a significant risk it's a fraud - the $50M of 'mats' is suspicious. Rest of the numbers are hard to analyze in this context.
- MNST - 25x multiple being attractive is hard for me to swallow - the 20% growth is nice, but GOOG/FB have similar valuations with far better moat.
- CLW - interesting idea, with decent valuation. But the recent run up of the price makes me less interested. I'll put token order at $18 to remind me of this once it moves down.
- NWSA - the valuation was not particularly compelling, and the media/publishing business is in my mind one that is still going to be challenging.
The ones I liked are listed below.
Iteris (ITI): even though a relatively small, it sounds like a well positioned business with good leadership in a growing market.
My simplistic DCF based on 7% growth rate is only yielding share price of $4.66, but with 15% (not unreasonable) it goes to $12 and a 5x revenue multiple yields similar number in a potential takeover - quite likely with companies that do smart cities being hungry to acquire someone who already has foot in the door with states, counties and municipalities. The VIC write-up lists a few promising lines of business that have no/little revenue just yet, so it's quite reasonable to expect double-digit growth.
I decided to put several purchase orders and while I don't think that they'll all fill, the story is interesting and I'll be happy to be part of it. Right now it's a minuscule part of my portfolio.
EZ Corp (EZPW): a lot of interesting write-ups, with very cheap price due to problematic owner (Cohen). I put several orders to build ~2% stake if it goes to $6.4. Few filled by 1/1, but given that the management is making reasonable steps (i.e. initiated buyback), I'm inclined to increase the price I'm willing to pay.
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