Tuesday, January 7, 2020

More VIC ideas evaluated

Another bunch of VIC ideas that I looked at, but decided to pass on:

  1. Nu Skin (NUS): I am not a fan of direct selling and MLMs so it would need to be a significant discount to intrinsic value to entice me to go there, but it is simply not there. The China risk discourages me even more, as I have no insight whatsoever into how this market can develop for MLMs in general and Nu Skin in particular.
  2. New Fortress Energy (NEF): This short idea would be reasonably interesting, given relatively rich valuation, lack of interest from the fixed income investors (12%+ interest rates), but 91% insider ownership gives me a pause - arranging a short squeeze wouldn't be too hard.
  3. Discovery Inc. (DISCA): While I like the FCF and deleveraging story, I think that the reality of streaming and distributed content creation might catch up with them sooner than people expect. Live sports is probably the only sustainable 'bundle' that users would pay for, apart from their Netflix/Disney+ subscriptions. With younger viewers, the YouTube channels will disrupt traditional network content and value of aggregation in this content will continue to move to the aforementioned platforms. I could possibly buy this story as a 'cigar butt', should management be committed to buybacks and deleveraging, but given the investments in DTC, it's much less compelling story.
  4. Pluralsight Inc (PS): This company is rather expensive ($2B+ market cap), for what it is worth, which is essentially a provider of highly-rotating (low shelf life) content. Moreover, there are lots of negative reviews about their billing practices, which I think can destroy the business like that in terms of consumer trust. I gather that they are more of a B2B business, but still with so much of a free content out there, their valuation is rather rich, so I'll pass. I'd actually be inclined to short it, but an acquisition by a big player is not impossible, so safer to stay away.
  5. Daneos (DAC): While very cheap on paper, I have real doubts about the equity raise, which disproportionally enriched the insiders ($6.00 offer price with the stock being in $11-12 range in the previous weeks. This does not build much confidence in them, and I'll simply pass.
  6. MIC: Somehow doubtful special situation - no clear catalyst.
  7. EPD: I know too little about energy to make well informed choices in this space. 
  8. JD.COM (JD): While JD is likely a solid business, the valuation is not really very low and China adds a significant risk from my perspective.
  9. Cimpress (CMPR): Stock is already lower compared to the original thesis, and given the heavy insider ownership and the core of the thesis being around decelerating revenue it is not a compelling short.

And various investments (mostly from VIC) that I liked:
  1. Campbell Soup Co (CPB): This short idea makes a lot of sense to me,  and while it won't go under, the valuation is certainly extended and building a short position here makes sense, especially compared to shorting S&P 500 (which I'm already doing). So I'm putting some orders to sell a bit of CPB.
  2. Seachange International (SEAC): The overall story seems reasonable, but given that the price is so much higher compared to 52 week lows, I'm hesitant to commit more time for analysis and money on this bet. I put a single order at $3.07 level (with $3.91 current price), just to revisit if there would be some interesting development here.
  3. Westrock Co (WRK): Hard to find as boring story as a paper and cardboard producer. But with little excitement, there's the potential for depressed valuations and few new entrants. Even though it's a commodity, the oligopoly nature of the business should ensure healthy profits and the secular trend of e-commerce is only going to help. Similarly, WRK seems well positioned, with their innovative products, to the trend of trying to reducing plastic usage. Given the defensive nature of this holding, I'm comfortable putting orders that will build a 15% position of the net worth. The only drawback is the relatively high dividend, which is not the most efficient way of returning capital. But I can live with flat or growing share prices and in case it declines further, the buybacks are increasingly likely.
  4. Wolverine (WWW): An interesting idea, but the price is too high for my taste right now, so similar to SEAC, I'll put an order (@ $25) at well below the current price.
  5. Pangaea Logistics Solutions (PANL): A reasonable idea given that the owners are still operating it and the relatively depressed valuation.
  6. Global Idemnity (GBLI): An OK insurer, which trades at low valuation. Given what I learned from Buffett, seems like a decent opportunity.
  7. LRAD (GNSS): Looks like an interesting, promising entity, but their competitor (Everbridge) is large and fast growing, so this one needs more insight.
  8. Alteryx (AYX): This short thesis is quite compelling, given the doubtful practice of front-loading revenue from long-term contracts. 
  9. American Airlines (AAL): Even though it's challenged by 737 MAX delays, the current valuation is attractive enough to invest.

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